{"id":26022,"date":"2025-05-04T14:26:46","date_gmt":"2025-05-04T08:41:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/?p=26022"},"modified":"2025-05-04T14:26:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-04T08:41:50","slug":"researchers-unveiled-dynamo-m-model-which-identifies-future-migration-in-coastal-regions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/researchers-unveiled-dynamo-m-model-which-identifies-future-migration-in-coastal-regions\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers unveiled ‘DYNAMO-M,’ model, which identifies future migration in coastal regions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam have unveiled DYNAMO-M, a groundbreaking global agent-based model that projects how farmers across the world\u2019s coasts may respond to the growing threat of coastal flooding and salt intrusion due to sea level rise (SLR). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model, which was presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 in Vienna, offers new insights into the challenges faced by 13 million farming households globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using decision-making logic rooted in discounted expected utility (DEU) theory, DYNAMO-M doesn\u2019t just forecast physical impacts \u2014 it simulates real human choices: stay and absorb losses, adapt with salt-tolerant crops and elevated homes, or migrate inland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These decisions play out year by year, crop by crop, from 2020 through 2080, covering 23 major food crops in flood-prone areas worldwide. \u201cRising seas are forcing a decision: stay, adapt, or migrate,\u201d says lead researcher Kushagra Pandey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stakes are enormous. Rising salinity and floodwaters are already slashing crop yields and farming income. DYNAMO-M identifies hotspots of future migration, with vulnerable coastal regions in Florida, New York, Oregon, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy likely to see major shifts in population and land use. Notably, the model also highlights areas within one-in-one-hundred-year floodplains, which are at particular risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s not all doom and displacement. The team also tested insurance schemes and government support policies in the model, revealing that smart interventions could significantly reduce the pressure to migrate and help communities stay and thrive despite the rising tides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSmall subsidies can significantly enhance adaptive capacity and reduce migration driven by sea-level rise,\u201d continues Kushagra Pandey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The findings push the frontier of climate risk modelling and offer actionable insights for governments, insurers, and global development agencies grappling with how to support frontline farming communities in a warming world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

DYNAMO-M could be the missing link in understanding one of the most urgent and complex questions of our time: what happens when our farmlands flood, and the farmers have to choose what to do next?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam have unveiled DYNAMO-M, a groundbreaking global agent-based model that projects how farmers across the world\u2019s coasts may respond to the growing threat of coastal flooding and salt intrusion due to sea level rise (SLR). The model, which was presented at the EGU General […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-news"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",1100,689,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-200x200.jpg",200,200,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-675x423.jpg",675,423,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-768x481.jpg",750,470,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-1024x641.jpg",750,469,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",1100,689,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",1100,689,false],"ultp_layout_landscape_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",1100,689,false],"ultp_layout_landscape":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-870x570.jpg",870,570,true],"ultp_layout_portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-600x689.jpg",600,689,true],"ultp_layout_square":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-600x600.jpg",600,600,true],"newspaper-x-single-post":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-760x490.jpg",760,490,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-big":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-550x360.jpg",550,360,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-list-image":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area-95x65.jpg",95,65,true],"web-stories-poster-portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",640,401,false],"web-stories-publisher-logo":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",96,60,false],"web-stories-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/coastal-area.jpg",150,94,false]},"author_info":{"info":["RevoScience"]},"category_info":"Environment<\/a> News<\/a>","tag_info":"News","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26022"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26022\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26048,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26022\/revisions\/26048"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}