{"id":26538,"date":"2025-06-11T16:46:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T11:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/?p=26538"},"modified":"2025-06-11T16:46:20","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T11:01:20","slug":"brace-for-high-hazard-summer-warn-experts-as-a-hotter-wetter-monsoon-is-forecast-for-mountain-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/brace-for-high-hazard-summer-warn-experts-as-a-hotter-wetter-monsoon-is-forecast-for-mountain-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"Brace for\u00a0High-Hazard Summer, Warn Experts,\u00a0As\u00a0A\u00a0Hotter, Wetter Monsoon is Forecast for Mountain Asia\u00a0\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
A snapshot of summer monsoon forecasts from four major global meteorological agencies. I. Data Source: SASCOF, C3S, APCC, and IRI. Graph by ICIMOD.\u00a0<\/sup><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kathmandu<\/strong>\u2014\u00a0Temperatures are expected to be up to 2\u00baC hotter than average across the whole Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region this summer monsoon, with three countries, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, as well as China\u2019s Tibetan Autonomous Region, also set for above-average rainfall, according to a new analysis of global and national meteorological agencies\u2019 data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With floods the leading cause of deaths and economic damage in the HKH, and close to three-quarters (72.5%) of all floods from 1980 to 2024 occurring during the summer monsoon season, experts warn disaster agencies and communities to brace for a possible rise in climate risks and impacts on societies, economies, and ecosystems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe forecasts we\u2019ve studied are unanimous in predicting a hotter monsoon across the entire HKH, with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of HKH,\u201d states Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Advisor at ICIMOD, one of the reviewers of the outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost. Lower rainfall, meanwhile, particularly in water-stressed countries such as Afghanistan, may pose risks to food and water security in a country with already extraordinarily high levels of malnutrition.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven the extremely high exposure and risks in our region, we urgently need impact-based early warning systems adopted at scale and for government and donor support to build up disaster preparedness to increase,\u201d said Saswata Sanyal, Manager of ICIMOD\u2019s Disaster Risk Reduction work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report, produced by ICIMOD\u2019s Climate and Environmental Risks group, provides a synthesis of predictions from global and regional meteorological bodies including the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), and national agencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change\u2014by driving more intense rainfall, permafrost degradation, and glacier retreat that can trigger floods, landslides, and GLOFs\u2014is the primary cause of the increasing frequency and magnitude of mountain hazards in the HKH region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A temperature rise, combined with wetter monsoons, can also increase the risk of heat stress and waterborne disease outbreaks, such as dengue, experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Asia has been wetter than average in recent years, except for 2023, a major report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued last month confirmed. The organization forecasts that this trend will continue until 2029.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WMO repeatedly emphasizes the need for increased investment in climate services and early warning systems in the teeth of rapidly escalating climate risks, with a particular focus on building the capacity of national meteorological and hydrological services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the total US$63 billion spent on climate adaptation, an estimated $4-5 billion, less than one-tenth, currently goes to climate services and early warning systems, the organization\u2019s research shows.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe know that worldwide, monitoring and prediction are playing an increasingly powerful role in safeguarding people and economic activity from rising climate risks,\u201d said Sarthak Shrestha, remote-sensing and geo-information associate at ICIMOD and an author of the outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Hindu Kush Himalayas is increasingly recognized as an epicenter of not just risk but also, given the huge population sizes here, of exposure\u2014so it\u2019s worrying that this is also a climate-data-scarce region. We need the global climate banks and knowledge partners to work with national governments to bring more state-of-the-art forecasting tools to this region to support the level of disaster readiness that will be able to save lives and protect investments.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Temperatures are expected to be up to 2\u00baC hotter than average across the whole Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region this summer monsoon, with three countries, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, as well as China\u2019s Tibetan Autonomous Region<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat.webp",1379,999,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-200x200.webp",200,200,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-675x489.webp",675,489,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-768x556.webp",750,543,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-1100x797.webp",750,543,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat.webp",1379,999,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat.webp",1379,999,false],"ultp_layout_landscape_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-1200x800.webp",1200,800,true],"ultp_layout_landscape":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-870x570.webp",870,570,true],"ultp_layout_portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-600x900.webp",600,900,true],"ultp_layout_square":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-600x600.webp",600,600,true],"newspaper-x-single-post":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-760x490.webp",760,490,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-big":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-550x360.webp",550,360,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-list-image":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-95x65.webp",95,65,true],"web-stories-poster-portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-640x853.webp",640,853,true],"web-stories-publisher-logo":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-96x96.webp",96,96,true],"web-stories-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/monsoon-chat-150x109.webp",150,109,true]},"author_info":{"info":["RevoScience"]},"category_info":"Environment<\/a>","tag_info":"Environment","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26538"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26538\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26540,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26538\/revisions\/26540"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26539"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}