{"id":2710,"date":"2015-02-16T08:08:40","date_gmt":"2015-02-16T08:08:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/revoscience.com\/en\/?p=2710"},"modified":"2015-02-16T08:13:00","modified_gmt":"2015-02-16T08:13:00","slug":"the-12-terrifying-ways-researchers-think-human-civilisation-is-most-likely-to-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/the-12-terrifying-ways-researchers-think-human-civilisation-is-most-likely-to-end\/","title":{"rendered":"The 12 terrifying ways researchers think human civilisation is most likely to end"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"web-wildlife-photo-7(1)\"<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

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Researchers at Oxford University have compiled a \u201cscientific assessment about the possibility of oblivion\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The scientists from the Global Challenges Foundation and the Future of Humanity Institute used their research to\u00a0draw up a list<\/span><\/a>\u00a0of the 12 most likely ways human civilization could end on planet earth.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis research is about how a better understanding of the magnitude of the challenges can help the world to address the risks it faces, and can help to create a path towards more sustainable development,\u201d the study\u2019s authors said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a scientific assessment about the possibility of oblivion, certainly, but even more it is a call for action based on the assumption that humanity is able to rise to challenges and turn them into opportunities.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"web-climate-change-getty\"<\/span><\/a>Extreme climate change<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The likelihood of global coordination to stop climate change is seen by the study\u2019s authors as the biggest controllable factor in whether the environmental catastrophe can be prevented.<\/span><\/p>\n

They also warn that the impact of climate change could be strongest in the poorest countries and that mass deaths from famines and huge migration trends could cause major global instability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nuclear war<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

While the researchers concede that a nuclear war is less likely than in the previous century, they say that evidence suggests \u201cthe potential for deliberate or accidental nuclear conflict has not been removed\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The biggest fact which they say would influence whether one happens would be how relations between future and current nuclear powers develop.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Ebola-2\"<\/span><\/a>Global pandemic<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are grounds for suspecting that such a high impact epidemic is more probable than usually assumed,\u201d the researchers believe.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ability of the world’s medical systems to respond to a pandemic is important in preventing a catastrophe, researchers say \u2013 but the biggest threat is simply whether there is an uncontrollable infectious disease out there or not.<\/span><\/p>\n

Major asteroid impact<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

An asteroid impact larger than 5km in size would destroy an area the size of the Netherlands, the researchers warn. They say these events happen every 20m years.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cShould an impact occur the main destruction will not be from the initial impact, but from the clouds of dust projected into the upper atmosphere,\u201d the study warns.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe damage from such an \u201cimpact winter\u201d could affect the climate, damage the biosphere, affect food supplies, and create political instability.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"world-in-pic-10\"<\/span><\/a>Super volcano<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Like an asteroid impact, the greatest threat from a super-volcano is a global dust-cloud that would block the sun\u2019s rays and cause a global winter. \u201cThe effect of [historic eruptions] could be best compared with that of a nuclear war,\u201d the researcher said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ability to stop damage depends on the ability of nations to coordinate and limit damage they cause.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"plastic-pollution-4\"
<\/span><\/a><\/span> plastic pollution<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ecological catastrophe<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The researchers say that humanity either has to conserve the eco-system, or hope that civilisation is not dependent on it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSpecies extinction is now far faster than the historic rate,\u201d the study warns. They say humanity must develop sustainable economies in order to survive this one.<\/span><\/p>\n

Global system catastrophe<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe world economic and political system is made up of many actors with many objectives and many links between them,\u201d the study warns. \u201cSuch intricate, interconnected systems are subject to unexpected system-wide failures caused by the structure of the network\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economic collapse could lead to social chaos, civil unrest and a breakdown in law and order.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"cancer
<\/span><\/a><\/span> cancer lab<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Synthetic biology<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The scientists are worried that someone will intentionally build an \u201cengineered pathogen\u201d to wipe out the human race.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAttempts at regulation or self-regulation are currently in their infancy, and may not develop as fast as research does,\u201d they warn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nanotechnology<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nanotechnology\u2019s proponents tout it as a way to solve problems, but the researchers believe it could present serious problems.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c[Nanotechnology] could lead to the easy construction of large arsenals of conventional or more novel weapons made possible by atomically precise manufacturing,\u201d they warn, before adding: \u201cOf particular relevance is whether nanotechnology allows the construction of nuclear bombs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"robots\"
<\/span><\/a><\/span> robots<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Artificial intelligence<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The researchers believe that \u201cextreme\u201d artificial intelligence \u201ccould not be easily controlled\u201d and would \u201cprobably act to boost their own intelligence and acquire maximal resources\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rather spookily, they say one of the key factors in our survival is whether \u201cthere will be a single dominant AI or a plethora of entities\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a bit of a twist, they concede that a powerful artificial intelligence might make solving all the other risks in the report much easier. All hail our new computer overlords?<\/span><\/p>\n

Future bad global governance<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The message here is that if politicians don\u2019t come up with solutions to the other problems in the list, they are a risk in and of themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are two main divisions in governance disasters: failing to solve major solvable problems, and actively causing worse outcomes,\u201d the study explains.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unknown consequences<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, the researchers warn of \u201cunknown unknowns\u201d and call for \u201cextensive research\u201d into \u201cunknown risks and their probabilities\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOne resolution to the Fermi paradox \u2013 the apparent absence of alien life in the galaxy \u2013 is that intelligent life destroys itself before beginning to expand into the galaxy.\u201d It’s all very cheery.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key words<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

oblivion<\/em>:\u00a0the state of being unaware or unconscious of what is happening around one.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

catastrophe<\/em>: an event causing great and usually sudden damage or suffering; a disaster.<\/span><\/p>\n

deliberate<\/em>:\u00a0done consciously and intentionally<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

proponents<\/em>:\u00a0a person who advocates a theory, proposal, or course of action.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

tout<\/em>:\u00a0attempt to sell (something), typically by a direct or persistent approach.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Researchers at Oxford University have compiled a \u201cscientific assessment about the possibility of oblivion\u201d. The scientists from the Global Challenges Foundation and the Future of Humanity Institute used their research to\u00a0draw up a list\u00a0of the 12 most likely ways human civilization could end on planet earth. \u201cThis research is about how a better understanding of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":2711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-research"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",2048,1536,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71-300x225.jpg",300,225,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",750,563,false],"large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71-1024x768.jpg",750,563,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",1536,1152,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",2048,1536,false],"ultp_layout_landscape_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",1067,800,false],"ultp_layout_landscape":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",760,570,false],"ultp_layout_portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",600,450,false],"ultp_layout_square":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",600,450,false],"newspaper-x-single-post":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",653,490,false],"newspaper-x-recent-post-big":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",480,360,false],"newspaper-x-recent-post-list-image":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",87,65,false],"web-stories-poster-portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",640,480,false],"web-stories-publisher-logo":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",96,72,false],"web-stories-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/web-wildlife-photo-71.jpg",150,113,false]},"author_info":{"info":["Amrita Tuladhar"]},"category_info":"Environment<\/a> Research<\/a>","tag_info":"Research","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}