{"id":36655,"date":"2026-04-07T10:06:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T04:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/?p=36655"},"modified":"2026-04-07T10:06:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T04:21:09","slug":"researchers-unveil-low-cost-method-to-boost-air-temperature-forecasts-up-to-five-weeks-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/researchers-unveil-low-cost-method-to-boost-air-temperature-forecasts-up-to-five-weeks-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers unveil low-cost method to boost air temperature forecasts up to five weeks ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"a6b0b7\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #a6b0b7;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"733\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36656 not-transparent\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp 1100w, https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-675x450.webp 675w, https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-150x100.webp 150w\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tokyo<\/strong> \u2013 Researchers from the University of Tokyo\u2019s Institute of Industrial Science and George Mason University\u2019s College of Science have unveiled a new technique that significantly improves air temperature forecasts one to five weeks in advance, without requiring additional model simulations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The method, called <em>Lagged Ensemble Analog Sub-selection (LEAS)<\/em>, was developed with support from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and published in the <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>. It selectively retains past ensemble members that showed strong predictive skill, reducing computational costs while enhancing forecast accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPrevious forecasts are not outdated,\u201d said Paul Dirmeyer, Distinguished University Professor at George Mason\u2019s Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences. \u201cBy retaining and grouping the best performing members of a series of forecasts, we can enhance forecast performance without rerunning the model.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>LEAS was tested using hindcasts of daily maximum temperatures over North America from four operational subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models. Results showed improved deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill across weeks one to five, with temperature forecast errors reduced by up to 10 percent in some regions and better prediction of extreme heat events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat surprised us most was that such a simple strategy worked consistently across all four independent forecast systems,\u201d said Daisuke Tokuda, project lecturer at the University of Tokyo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The approach could also be applied to machine learning\u2013based prediction systems, hydrological forecasting, and climate modeling frameworks, offering a practical pathway to improve operational S2S forecasts within existing resource limits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tokyo \u2013 Researchers from the University of Tokyo\u2019s Institute of Industrial Science and George Mason University\u2019s College of Science have unveiled a new technique that significantly improves air temperature forecasts one to five weeks in advance, without requiring additional model simulations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36656,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp",1100,733,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-200x200.webp",200,200,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-675x450.webp",675,450,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-768x512.webp",750,500,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp",750,500,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp",1100,733,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp",1100,733,false],"ultp_layout_landscape_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts.webp",1100,733,false],"ultp_layout_landscape":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-870x570.webp",870,570,true],"ultp_layout_portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-600x733.webp",600,733,true],"ultp_layout_square":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-600x600.webp",600,600,true],"newspaper-x-single-post":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-760x490.webp",760,490,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-big":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-550x360.webp",550,360,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-list-image":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-95x65.webp",95,65,true],"web-stories-poster-portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-640x733.webp",640,733,true],"web-stories-publisher-logo":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-96x96.webp",96,96,true],"web-stories-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Air-Temperature-Forecasts-150x100.webp",150,100,true]},"author_info":{"info":["RevoScience"]},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/category\/environment\/\" rel=\"category 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