Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook. El Ni\u00f1o is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO\u2019s full El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update (issued 2 June). It provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, in addition to El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.<\/em> El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are opposite phases of the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n El Ni\u00f1o events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The effects of each El Ni\u00f1o event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n WMO classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. The term \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d is not part of WMO’s operational classification system and is therefore not used in official WMO products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Seasonal outlook maps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The seasonal outlook maps, illustrate the probabilities of seasonal mean surface temperature(left) and precipitation (right) falling into above-, near-, or below-normal categories relative to local climatology. The colour coding identifies the category with the highest forecast probability. For example, red, blue, or grey regions indicate that the seasonal mean surface air temperature is most likely to be above-, below-, or near-normal, respectively. Deeper shades reflect a higher probability of the seasonal mean falling into that dominant category, while white areas denote equal chances (33.3% each) for all three categories. Crucially, an assigned colour indicates probability rather than certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Temperature Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60\u00b0S and 60\u00b0N \u2013 which covers nearly all populated areas outside Polar regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the oceans, the equatorial Pacific reflects a heavily structured footprint of the rapidly intensifying El Ni\u00f1o event, with more than 80% likelihood of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line. Above-normal temperatures are also predicted for the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. In contrast, a persistent horseshoe-like pattern of below- to near-normal temperature probabilities is predicted across the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rainfall Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The July\u2013September 2026 rainfall outlook reflects a pattern consistent with a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enhanced likelihood of above-normal rainfall is forecast across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. In contrast, below-normal rainfall is more likely across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Across equatorial Africa, the probabilistic signals display a prominent east-west contrast. Land areas bordering the northern Gulf of Guinea are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, in contrast to below-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America. In contrast, wetter-than-average conditions are more likely across portions of the southwestern United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Across Europe, forecasts suggest a north-south contrast, with increased chances of above-normal rainfall in southern Europe and below-normal rainfall in northern Europe. However, for Europe, forecast confidence remains lower than in many other regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n WMO Action<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n WMO is intensifying its mobilization of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regular briefings are being provided across the United Nations system and to humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management efforts. A WMO Coordination Mechanism Seasonal Climate Outlook briefing for UN agencies and humanitarian organizations e on 24 June 2026 included regional outlooks such as the 2026 West African and Sahel rainy season forecast from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n WMO is also developing a series of webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen regional coordination, communication and preparedness in response to the emerging El Ni\u00f1o event.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Geneva, Switzerland – El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[552],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image.png",1100,433,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-200x200.png",200,200,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-675x266.png",675,266,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-768x302.png",750,295,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image.png",750,295,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image.png",1100,433,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image.png",1100,433,false],"ultp_layout_landscape_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image.png",1100,433,false],"ultp_layout_landscape":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-870x433.png",870,433,true],"ultp_layout_portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-600x433.png",600,433,true],"ultp_layout_square":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-600x433.png",600,433,true],"newspaper-x-single-post":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-760x433.png",760,433,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-big":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-550x360.png",550,360,true],"newspaper-x-recent-post-list-image":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-95x65.png",95,65,true],"web-stories-poster-portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-640x433.png",640,433,true],"web-stories-publisher-logo":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-96x96.png",96,96,true],"web-stories-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-150x59.png",150,59,true]},"author_info":{"info":["RevoScience"]},"category_info":"weather<\/a>","tag_info":"weather","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38390"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38390\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38393,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38390\/revisions\/38393"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-1.png\" "\\"\\"")
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Global impacts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image.png\" "\\"\\"")
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