{"id":7846,"date":"2016-02-25T05:49:49","date_gmt":"2016-02-25T05:49:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/revoscience.com\/en\/?p=7846"},"modified":"2016-02-25T05:49:49","modified_gmt":"2016-02-25T05:49:49","slug":"will-we-ever-stop-using-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/will-we-ever-stop-using-fossil-fuels\/","title":{"rendered":"Will we ever stop using fossil fuels?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Not without a carbon tax, suggests a study by an MIT economist.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Christopher<\/a>
Christopher Knittel
M. Scott Brauer<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.<\/strong> —\u00a0In recent years, proponents of clean energy have taken heart in the falling prices of solar and wind power, hoping they will drive an energy revolution. But a new study co-authored by an MIT professor suggests otherwise: Technology-driven cost reductions in fossil fuels will lead us to continue using all the oil, gas, and coal we can, unless governments pass new taxes on carbon emissions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf we don\u2019t adopt new policies, we\u2019re not going to be leaving fossil fuels in the ground,\u201d says Christopher Knittel, an energy economist at the MIT Sloan School of Management. \u201cWe need both a policy like a carbon tax and to put more R&D money into renewables.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

While renewable energy has made promising gains in just the last few years \u2014 the cost of solar dropped by about two-thirds from 2009 to 2014 \u2014 new drilling and extraction techniques have made fossil fuels cheaper and markedly increased the amount of oil and gas we can tap into. In the U.S. alone, oil reserves have expanded 59 percent between 2000 and 2014, and natural gas reserves have expanded 94 percent in the same time.<\/span><\/p>\n

[pullquote]The study concludes that burning all available fossil fuels would raise global average temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100.[\/pullquote]<\/p>\n

\u201cYou often hear, when fossil fuel prices are going up, that if we just leave the market alone we\u2019ll wean ourselves off fossil fuels,\u201d adds Knittel. \u201cBut the message from the data is clear: That\u2019s not going to happen any time soon.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This trend \u2014 in which cheaper renewables are outpaced by even cheaper fossil fuels \u2014 portends drastic climate problems, since fossil fuel use has helped produce record warm temperatures worldwide.<\/span><\/p>\n

The study concludes that burning all available fossil fuels would raise global average temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100; burning oil shale and methane hydrates, two more potential sources of copious fossil fuels, would add another 1.5 to 6.2 degrees Fahrenheit to that.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSuch scenarios imply difficult-to-imagine change in the planet and dramatic threats to human well-being in many parts of the world,\u201d the paper states. The authors add that \u201cthe world is likely to be awash in fossil fuels for decades and perhaps even centuries to come.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The paper, \u201cWill We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?,\u201d is published in the\u00a0Journal of Economic Perspectives<\/em>. The authors are Knittel, who is MIT\u2019s William Barton Rogers Professor in Energy; Michael Greenstone, the Milton Friedman Professor in Economics and the College at the University of Chicago; and Thomas Covert, an assistant professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. The scholars examine costs over a time frame of five to 10 years, stating that further forecasts would be quite speculative, although the trend of cheaper fossil fuels could continue longer.<\/span><\/p>\n

More efficient extraction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

At least two technological advances have helped lower fossil fuel prices and expanded reserves: hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which has unlocked abundant natural gas supplies, and the production of oil from tar sands. Canada, where this type of oil production began in 1967, did not recognize tar sands as reserves until 1999 \u2014 an energy-accounting decision that increased world oil reserves by about 10 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are hydrocarbons that we can now take out of the ground that 10 or 20 years ago we couldn\u2019t,\u201d Knittel observes.<\/span><\/p>\n

So whereas some energy analysts once thought the apparently limited amount of oil reserves would make the price of oil unfeasibly high at some point, that dynamic seems less likely now.<\/span><\/p>\n

To see how much better firms are at extracting fossil fuels from the Earth, consider this: The probability of an exploratory oil well being successful was 20 percent in 1949 and just 16 percent in the late 1960s, but by 2007 that figure had risen to 69 percent, and today it\u2019s around 50 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result of these improved oil and gas extraction techniques, we have consistently had about 50 years\u2019 worth of accessible oil and natural gas reserves in the ground over the last 30 years, the scholars note.<\/span><\/p>\n

All told, global consumption of fossil fuels rose significantly from 2005 through 2014: about 7.5 percent for oil, 24 percent for coal, and 20 percent for natural gas. About 65 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are derived from fossil fuels, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Of those emissions, coal generates about 45 percent, oil around 35 percent, and natural gas about 20 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Renewable hope<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

To be sure, renewable energy has seen an impressive decline in its prices within the last decade. But looking at the \u201clevelized\u201d cost of energy (which accounts for its long-term production and costs), solar is still about twice as expensive as natural gas. The need to handle sharp evening increases in power consumption \u2014 what energy analysts call the \u201cduck curve\u201d of demand \u2014 also means power suppliers, already wary of solar power\u2019s potential to reduce their revenues, may continue to invest in fossil fuel-based power plants.<\/span><\/p>\n

The development of better battery technology, for storing electricity, is vital for increased use of renewables in both electricity and transportation, where electric vehicles can be plugged into the grid for charging. But the example of electric vehicles also shows how far battery technology must progress to make a large environmental impact. Currently only 12 percent of fossil fuel-based power plants are sufficiently green that electric vehicles powered by them are responsible for fewer emissions than a Toyota Prius.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alternately, look at it this way: Currently battery costs for an electric vehicle are about $325 per kilowatt-hour (KwH). At that cost, Knittel, Greenstone, and Covert calculate, the price of oil would need to exceed $350 per barrel to make an electric vehicle cheaper to operate. But in 2015, the average price of oil was about $49 per barrel.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s certainly the case that solar and wind prices have fallen dramatically and battery costs have fallen,\u201d Knittel says. \u201cBut the price of gas is a third almost of what it used to be. It\u2019s tough to compete against $1.50 gasoline. On the electricity side \u2026 the cheap natural gas still swamps, in a negative way, the cost of solar and even wind.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Emphasizing the case for a carbon tax<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

That may change, of course. As Knittel observes, new solar techniques \u2014 such as thin-film layers that integrate solar arrays into windows \u2014 may lead to even steeper reductions in the price of renewables, especially as they could help reduce installation costs, a significant part of the solar price tag.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the immediate problem of accumulating carbon emissions means some form of carbon tax is necessary, Knittel says \u2014 especially given what we now know about declining fossil fuel costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cClearly we need to get out in front of climate change, and the longer we wait, the tougher it\u2019s going to be,\u201d Knittel emphasizes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Knittel supports the much-discussed policy lever of a carbon tax to make up for the disparity in energy costs. That concept could take several specific forms. One compelling reason for it, from an economists\u2019 viewpoint, is that fossil fuels impose costs on society \u2014 \u201cexternalities\u201d \u2014 that users do not share. These include the increased health care costs that result from fossil fuel pollution, or the infrastructure costs that are likely to result from rising sea levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTaxes on externalities are not inconsistent with the free-market system,\u201d Knittel says. \u201cIn fact, they\u2019re required to make the free-market system achieve the efficient outcome. This idea that a pure free-market economy never has taxes is wrong.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Knittel adds: \u201cThe point of the paper is that if we don\u2019t adopt policies, we\u2019re not leaving fossils fuels in the ground.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study co-authored by an MIT professor suggests, technology-driven cost reductions in fossil fuels will lead us to continue using all the oil, gas, and coal we can, unless governments pass new taxes on carbon emissions. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":7847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0-300x200.jpg",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"ultp_layout_landscape_large":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"ultp_layout_landscape":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"ultp_layout_portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",600,400,false],"ultp_layout_square":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",600,400,false],"newspaper-x-single-post":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"newspaper-x-recent-post-big":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",540,360,false],"newspaper-x-recent-post-list-image":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",95,63,false],"web-stories-poster-portrait":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",639,426,false],"web-stories-publisher-logo":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",96,64,false],"web-stories-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/MIT-World-Energy_0.jpg",150,100,false]},"author_info":{"info":["Amrita Tuladhar"]},"category_info":"Research<\/a>","tag_info":"Research","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7846\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.revoscience.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}